Putin banking on NATO's failure, German spy chief warns of rising threats

These attacks are not just cyber threats, but also actions aimed at testing NATO’s defenses and weakening the alliance.

Speaking at a German Society for Foreign Policy event in Berlin, Kahl explained that the BND believes some high-ranking officials in Russia’s Ministry of Defence doubt whether NATO's mutual defense system will stand strong in a crisis. 

He emphasized that while there is currently no proof that Russia is planning an actual war, these doubts could increase the risk of a military confrontation in the future.

Kahl pointed out that Russia’s strategy isn’t focused on taking more land, but rather on weakening NATO. "Russia is not interested in expanding its territory," he said. "Instead, President Putin’s goal is to break NATO, making it ineffective as a defense alliance."

Russia Testing NATO’s Unity

Before Russia would consider any direct military confrontation, Kahl believes the Kremlin will first try to divide NATO. This might include pushing for disagreements between member states or questioning their commitment to mutual defense. One of the ways Russia is doing this is through "nuclear rumblings" or threats that can unsettle Europe, said Kahl.

Russia’s actions are meant to test NATO’s willingness to respond to aggression. Moscow wants to see if NATO countries are truly ready to defend each other if the alliance is threatened. Kahl also added that Russia might try to weaken individual NATO members, making them hesitant to follow a unified defense strategy.

"The Kremlin likely thinks the West struggles to find quick and united responses, especially in a world filled with many conflicts," Kahl said. This means that Russia might try to create chaos within NATO, making it harder for the alliance to act together.

Rising Military Risk

Kahl stressed that Russia's readiness for military escalation is at an all-time high. With Russia building up its military power, the possibility of a direct military confrontation with NATO is becoming more likely, he warned.

He noted that by the end of the decade, Russia’s armed forces could be strong enough, both in terms of manpower and equipment, to challenge NATO. This is a serious concern for NATO members, who must be prepared for the possibility of such a conflict.

Despite these risks, Kahl does not believe that Russia is immediately planning war. However, he said that the situation in Moscow is increasingly uncertain. If officials in Russia continue to doubt NATO’s strength, the risk of confrontation could grow.

Kahl concluded by saying that the situation is likely to worsen before it gets better. As tensions rise, NATO may face more challenges in staying united and ready to defend its members. It is essential that NATO countries remain vigilant, especially as Russia continues to test the alliance’s strength in various ways.