US-China relations at a crossroads: what happens under Trump?

As President-elect Donald Trump gets ready to take office, he will face a delicate relationship between the United States and China. 

Over the past year, Presidents Joe Biden and Xi Jinping worked hard to fix ties after the COVID-19 pandemic and rising tensions over Taiwan. But with Trump coming back into office, many people are worried that important talks between the two countries might stop.

The relationship between the US and China is very complicated. It includes discussions about defense, trade, climate change, and other important topics. While some progress has been made under Biden, people are concerned that Trump’s approach could undo a lot of the work that has been done.

Defense: Key Talks at Risk

One of the most important areas in US-China relations is defense. Over the past year, the two countries have worked on improving communication between their militaries. This has helped reduce tensions in areas like the South China Sea, where China and the Philippines often clash, and Taiwan, which China sees as part of its territory.

However, there is still much more work to do. China is building up its military, and the US is trying to keep its strong presence in Asia. If there is a new crisis, military talks might be some of the first things to stop, experts say.

For example, after House Speaker Nancy Pelosi visited Taiwan in 2022, communication between the two militaries dropped for almost two years. But after Biden and Xi met in person in November 2023, military talks started to improve. If Trump takes a hard line with China, these important talks could be in danger, making situations like Taiwan and the South China Sea even more tense.

"Unpredictability can make military leaders nervous," said Alexander Neill, a security expert. "If Trump’s approach is unclear, there could be more pressure in areas like Taiwan and the South China Sea."

Fentanyl: A Joint Effort to Tackle the Crisis

Another area where the US and China have worked together is in the fight against fentanyl, a deadly drug that has caused a major crisis in the US. Fentanyl is made using chemicals, and the US has asked China to stop the illegal production of these chemicals. In 2023, Biden and Xi agreed to work together on this issue.

After a meeting in August, China said it would tighten control over three key chemicals used to make fentanyl. This was a good step, but it is still unclear whether Trump would keep this cooperation going. Fentanyl is a major problem in the US, and Trump’s actions could have a big effect on how both countries handle this issue.

Climate Change: Setbacks Ahead?

Climate change is another area where the US and China have worked together. Both countries are the world’s top polluters, and their cooperation helped lead to the Paris Climate Agreement. But with Trump expected to pull the US out of the Paris agreement again, this partnership could end.

Under Biden, the two countries worked together on climate issues, and their cooperation helped push for global agreements to fight climate change. But Trump’s stance on climate change is very different. 

His policies could undo any progress made during Biden’s time in office. This could also make it harder to convince China to adopt stronger targets to reduce emissions, especially since China is already unhappy with the US’s trade rules on green products like electric cars and solar panels.

Economics: Potential for Stagnation

The US and China also have regular meetings about economic and financial issues. These talks have helped reduce some of the tension in trade between the two countries. In September 2023, Chinese officials shared concerns about US tariffs, restrictions on investments, and sanctions on Russia. These meetings have brought some progress, but experts worry that Trump might end these talks.

Zhao Mingzhao, an expert from China, says that China is worried that economic talks could stop if Trump becomes president. Trump has often taken a tough stance on China, and his actions might make it harder to solve trade problems between the two countries.