U.S. election uncertain, but Australia’s pact remains a sure bet

Many Australians feel uneasy about the chance of Donald Trump becoming president again. However, they still trust the strong ties between Australia and the United States as Americans head to the polls.

Former President Trump is running against Vice President Kamala Harris. Polls show that they are very close in the race for the White House. Voting day is set for Tuesday in the U.S., which will be Wednesday in Australia.

In Australia, some political leaders worry about what a Trump presidency could mean. They think about his support for trade tariffs and his unpredictable nature. 

Jared Mondschein, a U.S. politics expert, said it is hard to guess what Trump might do, given his changes in policies. He mentioned that Trump has shown interest in tariffs, especially against China. 

However, he also pointed out that the current Biden administration has kept tariffs in place and added new rules, particularly against Chinese electric cars.

Trump often uses tariffs as a tool to negotiate trade deals. On the other hand, a Harris administration may be more careful about signing deals, doubting that China would keep its promises. Mondschein said, “More tariffs going up globally is not something most governments want to navigate.”

Both candidates seem to agree on foreign policy. They do not want to get more involved in conflicts in the Middle East. They also hold a tough view on China. Mondschein expects both candidates to continue focusing on the Indo-Pacific region. He noted the importance of this area, saying, “As we learned from World War II, the strategic value of the region cannot be underestimated.”

A recent poll from the U.S. Studies Centre (USSC) showed that 37% of Australians wanted to leave the alliance with the U.S. if Trump were president. However, this number dropped to 26% over the past year. Mondschein believes this shows Australians support the alliance, even if they do not like the U.S. president.

The AUKUS agreement, where Australia works with the U.S. and the U.K. to obtain nuclear-powered submarines, remains strong. Some people worry that Trump might try to change or end this deal to increase U.S. naval power. 

Australia is set to help support the American industrial base, allowing the U.S. to sell three to five Virginia-class submarines starting in the early 2030s.

This agreement aims to increase military spending and make allies more self-reliant in defense. Mondschein noted that Australia has bipartisan support for AUKUS. He does not see the agreement at risk, regardless of whether Trump or Harris wins.

Prime Minister Anthony Albanese is working to reassure people about Australia’s relationship with the U.S. He addressed concerns that Kevin Rudd, Australia’s ambassador to the U.S., might be in danger if Trump becomes president. 

Trump has called Rudd "nasty" and hinted that Rudd would not keep his position as ambassador if he is re-elected because Rudd has criticized him.

Albanese said that it's up to Australia to choose its own ambassador, and he thinks Rudd is doing a great job. He added that Australia will keep working closely with American leaders, no matter who is the president. He also shared that he met with both Republicans and Democrats during his visit to the U.S.

Jared Mondschein praised Rudd for successfully managing relationships across the political spectrum. He believes Rudd is the effective communicator Australia needs to help maintain calm if Trump returns to power.