Far-Right AfD Could Win First State Election in East Germany
Sep 1, 2024
Germans head to the polls Sunday. Far-right AfD leads in Thuringia and Saxony. A win could change German politics, showing a big divide between East and West.
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On Sunday, Germans in two eastern states will vote in a crucial election. The far-right party Alternative for Germany (AfD) is set to make history. This could be the first time a far-right party wins a state election in Germany since World War II.
In Thuringia, the AfD is leading with 30% of the vote. In Saxony, it's neck-and-neck with the conservatives, each with 30-32%. If the AfD wins, it will be a major shift in German politics.
The AfD, which is only 11 years old, may not be able to form a state government even if it wins. The party is polling short of a majority, and other parties don’t want to work with it.
However, a strong performance by the AfD and a new populist party, the Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW), will make forming a coalition difficult.
The AfD and BSW both oppose migration, are skeptical of the European Union, and have friendly ties with Russia.
These parties are especially popular in the former East Germany. Here, people are worried about rising living costs, the war in Ukraine, and immigration issues. Recently, a stabbing attack linked to Islamic State has increased fears about immigration and criticism of the government’s handling of it.
Bjoern Hoecke, the AfD leader in Thuringia, stirred controversy by calling Berlin's Holocaust memorial a "monument of shame." He was also convicted for using a Nazi slogan earlier this year.
All three parties in Chancellor Olaf Scholz's federal coalition are expected to lose votes on Sunday. The Green Party and the Free Democrats might struggle to get more than 5% of the vote needed to enter parliament.
The coalition, made up of different parties with conflicting views, has been troubled by infighting. A big loss in the East will likely create more tension in Berlin.
Sahra Wagenknecht, the leader of the BSW, believes the state elections could cause a "political earthquake" in Berlin.
The BSW, which combines social conservatism with left-leaning economic views, has seen rapid growth since its creation in January. It could win 12-20% of the vote and become a key player in both states.
The AfD and BSW together might get 40-50% of the vote in Thuringia and Saxony, compared to just 23-27.5% nationally. This shows a significant divide between East and West Germany, even more than 30 years after reunification.
People in the East feel less connected to Germany’s democratic system and have more sympathy for Russia.
Despite recent investments in industries like chipmaking and electric cars, economic differences with the West remain. This frustration contributes to the strong support for the AfD and BSW.
