A recent poll shows the far-right National Rally party leading with 36% of the vote. The leftist New Popular Front coalition follows with 29%, while President Emmanuel Macron’s coalition is third with 19.5%.
Source-Seine, a tiny village in Burgundy, is where the mighty Seine River begins as a trickle in the woods. The village has stone houses, three roads, one steepled church, and just 72 voters. This farming area usually votes right, but not extreme right. However, as France shifts away from the center, so might Source-Seine.
Sophie Louet, the mayor, notes that centrist candidates like President Emmanuel Macron are absent here. This reflects a wider trend across France, the world's seventh-largest economy.
"Far right, far left ... and nothing in between," said Sophie Louet, speaking about the four candidates on the ballot for the region in Sunday's election. "It's very destabilizing. In the last legislative elections, there were 30 candidates from all parties."
France faces a stark choice in its upcoming election. A leading pollster shows the far-right National Rally ahead with 36% of the vote. The leftist New Popular Front coalition follows with 29%. Macron's coalition is third with 19.5%, according to Ipsos. The surge of the right and collapse of the center sends shock waves across France. Some analysts warn that the deep disillusionment behind these numbers extends beyond France.
After his party was crushed by the far right in June’s European parliamentary elections, Macron called a snap election. This quick, three-week campaign aimed to steer voters away from political extremes but failed to shift the momentum.
“The center has imploded,” said Samantha de Bendern, a geopolitical commentator for La Chaine Info. “Macron miscalculated. He hoped the moderate left and right would support him, but they’ve joined the extremes instead."
National Rally (RN), led by Marine Le Pen, has softened its image by dropping hostility toward NATO and leaving the EU. However, the party still prioritizes "France for the French," giving citizens priority for jobs, housing, and social welfare.
Originally called the National Front, the party was founded by Jean-Marie Le Pen, Marine Le Pen's father. He was openly racist and made antisemitic comments, even dismissing the Holocaust as a “detail” of history.
Marine Le Pen has tried to soften the party’s image, but the National Rally (RN) remains strongly anti-immigration with Islamophobic undertones. Some RN members still express racist, antisemitic, or homophobic views. A report from the French National Consultative Commission on Human Rights showed that 54 percent of RN supporters identify as racist.
A 'Difficult' Choice
Emmanuel Delaval, a 50-year resident of Source-Seine, says people are now more open about voting far right. "The RN has changed; it’s no longer the National Front," he said, though he hasn't decided his vote. "The choice is very difficult."
His friend, Dmitry Fouks from nearby Trouhaut, is more direct. "People don't believe in politics, France, or Europe anymore," he said.
Jordan Bardella, a 28-year-old protege of Marine Le Pen and the National Rally president since 2022, could become prime minister if the party wins enough seats. Bardella promises to crack down on migration and combat Islamist ideas, aiming to "put France back on its feet."
In 2022, Le Pen called the hijab a "uniform of totalitarian ideology" and proposed banning it in public places. Identity is a key voting driver, with many feeling that traditional French culture is fading. Sebastien Maillard from Chatham House notes this shift and suggests people are now willing to give the far right a chance, finding them less intimidating.
National Rally also targets the working class. Bardella, from a disadvantaged Paris suburb, resonates with voters struggling with rising prices and inequality. He plans to reverse Macron’s pension changes, bring back a tax on wealth, and cut taxes on energy and fuel.
Antoine Hoareau, a member of the Socialist Party and deputy mayor of Dijon, grew up in Source-Seine, where his family still lives, and owns a home there.
"There's a clear gap between cities and rural areas," Hoareau says. "Here, there's no immigration; you have to travel 10 kilometers for bread, and there's a lack of doctors and public transport. These low-income families face social challenges.
"People here watch right-wing channels that exaggerate immigration and crime issues, creating a perception of problems that don't exist locally."
From the source of the Seine to Paris, Anne Hidalgo, the Socialist Party member and mayor of Paris, fears extremism's impact on France's future. She sees Le Pen as a significant risk, recalling France's experience during World War II under the collaborationist Vichy government.
With National Rally likely falling short of the 279 seats needed for a majority, France faces a probable hung Parliament. This could lead to political paralysis and prolonged uncertainty.
"We might end up with no government, a technocratic government, or months of negotiations over the prime minister's role," de Bendern added. "Macron can call new elections after a year, so we face potential chaos."
"We might start the Olympics without a prime minister," she said.
Political instability could affect the Olympics, starting in Paris less than three weeks after the vote. Security concerns are high across Europe due to conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East, and recent attacks. In May, a man in southern France was arrested for planning an attack on a soccer stadium used during the Olympics. Security measures are increasing in Paris, with some metro stations closed.
Interior Minister Gérald Darmanin warned of potential violent protests after both rounds of elections. "There could be strong tensions," he said, preparing for a volatile situation.
Outside influences are targeting French voters. A report by Recorded Future’s Insikt Group said operations linked to Russia and Iran are targeting the French elections, including impersonating French media.
